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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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