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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET IN FIRST POSITIVE SIGN IN DAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Owners of dry bulk carriers are well aware of the rollercoaster ride that has been the market for their vessels over the past few years. This trend ...
Thursday, 31 October 13
HANDY: ACTIVE; PANAMAX: QUIET; CAPESIZE: NO LIGHT
Handy
The handy market had an active week however not directly translated into the rates we´ve seen in the Pacific. We see more coal and baux ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER HAS EXPORTED 7.02 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 9 MONTHS
COALspot.com : PT. Bukit Asam, Indonesian state owned coal miner has sold 13.24 million tons of coal for the period January - September 2013. Accord ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week, as de-creased activity in both basins for both C ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
CAPESIZE: DOWNWARD; SUPRAS AND HANDIES: STABLE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has resumed its downward movement, noting another dip for a third week in a row. The larger size segments were responsible for p ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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