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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 November 13
API 8 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.65% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2014 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.24 percept W-W on Friday 1 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
H2' 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE ( SWAPS) SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 0.24 percept week on week on Friday 1 ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX FELL 13.61 PCT W-W
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to soften on the cape and panamax sectors , however the supramax and handy size remained fairly firm.
...
Saturday, 02 November 13
DRY BULK SHIPPERS AREN'T CELEBRATING, BUT THEIR SILENCE IS GOLDEN - MARKET REALIST
In October, performance for major dry bulk shipping companies was mixed. Companies like DryShips Inc. (DRYS) had pulled back more than Diana Shippin ...
Friday, 01 November 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 0.9 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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