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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 November 13
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S RISING WATER CHALLENGE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Water poses a variety of business risks for the energy industry, and could play an influential role in shaping the future energy supply mix, accordi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA ROUNDS ARE SEEING BIDS AT AROUND $16K
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS LOST GROUND WHILE SUPRAS AND HANDIES HELD ON TO THEIR GAINS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )
A mirror image of the week prior for the Dry Bulk market, as once more the bigger size segments los ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has ...
Tuesday, 05 November 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SEES DROP IN COAL EXPORTS W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 4, Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.77 m ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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