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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 November 13
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE; SUPRAMAX BIGGEST GAINER - REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was up this week with all indices increased except for Panamax index.
The BDI was up by 56 points closing at 158 ...
Friday, 08 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET BOUNCES BACK ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market staged a mild comeback this week, as the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched forward step by step and bit b ...
Friday, 08 November 13
US'S OCTOBER COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 1.78% M-M - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
FORMOSA PLASTICS SEEKS 80K MT OF 5850 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 80,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in Nov - Dec'13 for its Chi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME INCREASED; REVENUE DECREASED
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy, 4th largest coal producer in the world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipp ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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