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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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