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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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