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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
Monday, 18 November 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST ON WEEK; MARGINALLY GAINED ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.25 pmt month on month on Friday 15 Novemb ...
Sunday, 17 November 13
Q4' 14 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.43 PMT (4.34 %) HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 SWAP
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.05 percept d-d on Friday 15 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 16 November 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FIRM DUE TO STRONG COAL ACTIVITIES
COALspot.com: The Cape and Panamax index was down this week and pulling down the BDI by about 5 pct. BDI was closed at 1507 points on Friday 1 ...
Friday, 15 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LINGERING ON, DESPITE PREDICTIONS OF NEW IMMINENT RALLY PRIOR TO THE YEAR'S END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet managed to stage a new comeback after its retreat from the recent multiyear highs. Yesterday, the industry's benchm ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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