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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 13
PANAMAX MARKET RESUMED ITS NEGATIVE MOVEMENT FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The recovery noted the week prior in the dry Bulk market proved to be short-lived, as the BDI slipped back down to the low 1,500 point ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 0.825 MMT OF 5000 GAR COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 825,000 metric tons of general sub-bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,000 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
CAPES AND PANAMAXES SOFTENING; SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS FIRMING FURTHER - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable- )
The BDI has closed off the week on the red, with rates for Capes and Panamaxes softening and those fo ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.98% IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.52 / MT ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FROM NEWCASTLE PORT INCREASED BY 20.59%
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 18, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.92& ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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