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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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