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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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