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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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