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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
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