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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
BDI STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES JUMP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its upward trend and maintaining the moment with BDI and Cape index up by 16 pct week on week. The Capesi ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ADVANCE
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 2.09 percept month on month on Friday 20 September 2 ...
Friday, 20 September 13
SHIP OWNERS INVEST MORE THAN $9.2 BILLION ON NEW BUILDING VESSELS DURING AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that August is traditionally a slow month in terms of ships investment activity, ship owners have grasped this year the opportunity ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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