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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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