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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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