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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 14 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.20 MILLION SHORT TONS W/E 8 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
HANDY: SHORT PERIOD WERE FIXED AT AROUND USD 9000 LEVEL
Handy
Despite falling rates for bigger sizes, the Supras in Atlantic are seeing some improvements with fresh biz. US Gulf positions fetching tick a ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF EAGLE PROJECT FOR AN ESTIMATED US$325 MILLION IN CASH
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto has reached a binding agreement to sell its Eagle project to Lundin Mining Corporation for an estimated US$325 million in c ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
HARD COAL IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY IN GERMANY IN Q1 2013 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: Pillars of the Grid and the Energy Turnaround; Hard Coal Consumption and Hard Coal Imports Rise Sharply in Germa ...
Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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