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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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