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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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