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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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