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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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