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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 07 June 13
MEDITERRANEAN COAL MARKETS
Press Release: 3rd International Conference Mediterranean Coal Markets will be held on 16-17th of September 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, Ceylan Intercont ...
Friday, 07 June 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 0.54 PER CENT THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 1
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 06 June 13
WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH INDO COAL TO CHINA AND INDIA - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic, the Gulf remains firm for the next week with a few orders in the market. The Supramaxes are seeing around low 20k for fronth ...
Wednesday, 05 June 13
DON'T AVOID PAYING COAL ROYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com – “Every country has the right to make policies to protect their national interests”, Energy and Mineral Resources Mi ...
Tuesday, 04 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.56 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,563,596 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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