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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 31 January 13
DRY BULK RATES ON A FALLING PATTERN DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The seasonal factor has emerged as the latest catalyst in determining the course of the dry bulk market, as the floods in eastern Australia, the big ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.70 MMT OF COAL W/E 28 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,703,921 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 28 January 2013, Newca ...
Thursday, 31 January 13
MMTC TO IMPORT 2.68 MMT OF COAL FOR ARAVALI POWER CORPORATION LTD
COALspot.com: The tender floated by MMTC on behalf of Aravali Power Corporation Ltd, a Joint venture between NTPC and State of Haryana for supply of ...
Wednesday, 30 January 13
TNPL TO SECURE 300K MT OF IMPORTED COAL SUPPLIES AT US$ 75.95 PMT FOR MARCH - AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Chennai based Coastal Energy Private Limited (C&O Group of companies) offered lowest price of US$ 75.95 per met ...
Monday, 28 January 13
BAYAN RESOURCES TO SELL 18 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO GNPOWER MARIVELES COAL PLANT
Publicly-listed PT Bayan Resources announced on Friday that it had signed an agreement on coal sales with Philippine-based GNPower Mariveles Coal Pl ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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