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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 24 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on the downside during the past couple of days, mainly as a result of the tropical storm which forced ports to close do ...
Tuesday, 22 January 13
PORT OF ANTWERP HANDLES 7.0 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2012 Y-Y
COALspot.com - The port of Antwerp handled 184,134,516 tonnes of freight last year.
This represents a drop of 1.6% compared with 2011, when the v ...
Monday, 21 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 10.21 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 21 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,804,152 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 21 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 21 January 13
PANAMAX DRY BULK CARRIERS AND AFRAMAX TANKERS PROVED TO BE THE "WEAPON OF CHOICE" FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship financing getting ever so difficult to procure during the past year or so, ship owners had to get creative in order to persuade banks and ...
Sunday, 20 January 13
Q1 & Q4 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: FIRM
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) and CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’ 2013 delivery have gained 0.81percent and ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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