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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 05 February 13
CHALLENGER DEEP RESOURCES CORP HAS ENTERED INTO AN EXCLUSIVE MINING AND MARKETING AGREEMENT WITH KEM
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bestindo Energy, has entered into an Exclusivity Agreement r ...
Saturday, 02 February 13
ADARO TO INTRODUCE A NEW BRAND OF ENVIROCOAL, E4700, IN 2013
COALspot.com - Adaro Energy, an Indonesian and leading coal producer in country has achieved a record coal production during 4Q12 of 13.31 mil ...
Saturday, 02 February 13
FREIGHT MARKET MAY REBOUND AFTER CHINESE NEW YEAR - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down by around 5-7 pct this week.
The BDI was down 6.01 pct closing at 750 po ...
Friday, 01 February 13
ORPHEUS SELLS B26 COAL PROJECTS FOR US$ 2 MILLION TO FOCUS ON SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX: OEG) has announced that it has sold its 51 percent equity stake in the East Kalimantan coal projects, Bl ...
Friday, 01 February 13
HANDY - FLAT; PANAMAX - FLAT TO WEAK; CAPESIZE - WEAK
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 17k and Black sea to Feast ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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