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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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