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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 27 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.31 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 27 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET: FLAT TO SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down except for handy size.
The BDI was down 4.66 pct closing at 798 points.. ...
Friday, 25 January 13
BOTSWANA GOVERNMENT GRANTS COAL LICENSES TO A-CAP RESOURCES LIMITED
A-Cap Resources Limited has announced that it has been granted coal rights within its Bolau tenements which sit next to the Sese Coal and Power Proj ...
Friday, 25 January 13
SMALL ROOM FOR OPTIMISM FOR THE PROSPECTS OF THE DRY BULK MARKET AS NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market didn't manage to post a rebound during the past year, quite the opposite, as a fast fleet growth and slow ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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