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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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