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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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