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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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