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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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