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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 28 February 13
SHIP OWNERS EXPECTED TO FACE A CHALLENGING YEAR, DESPITE THE FALL OF NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tonnage oversupply and a lagging growth in world trade demand are expected to keep shipping in the "red", despite a series of measures ado ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS SEEN A GOOD UPTURN OVER THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 0.358 MILLION MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,178,869 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 February 2013, Newc ...
Wednesday, 27 February 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. ANNOUNCES COAL SUPPLY AND DELIVERY CONTRACT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. yesterday announced that the Company has signed an agreement to supply and deliver 1.48 million metric tons of steam coal to a ...
Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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