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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 10 March 13
INDIA - INDONESIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT : FIRM TREND
COALspot.com – This week freight market was raised and remained firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 6.70 pct closed at 843 points, ...
Sunday, 10 March 13
INDONESIA'S FORESTRY DEPARTMENT IS TO INCREASE BORROW-TO-USE PERMITS (IJIN PINJAM PAKAI) FEE SOON
COALspot.com : Indonesia to increase borrows-to-use permit fees by 33.33 percent. The government of Indonesia is planning to increase the state&rsqu ...
Friday, 08 March 13
EKO SANTOSO BUDIANTO APPOINTED AS PRESDIENT DIRECTOR OF BERAU COAL ENERGY
COALspot.com - PT Berau Coal Energy has appointed Eko Santoso Budianto as new president director, replacing Rosan Roeslani. Berau’s extraordin ...
Friday, 08 March 13
INDONESIAN HBA UP FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in March 2013.
The monthly coal reference ...
Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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