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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 11 March 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.41 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 1.41percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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