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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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