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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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