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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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