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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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