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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 23 April 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER SHIPPED 4 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 1Q
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, the Indonesian state owned coal miner shipped more coal in first quarter of this year compared to the same period in ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
REALM CONTINUES AS 51% OWNER AND MANAGER OF THE KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced today that, the commercial way forward for the development of its 51% held Indonesian t ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
TIGERS REALM COAL HAS SOME OF THE WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED COKING COAL ASSETS - EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
COALspot.com - “ During 2012, your Company has made very significant progress towards meeting its stated objective of becoming a global player ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 4.38 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,434,336 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 22 April 2013, Newca ...
Sunday, 21 April 13
INDONESIA - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE FIRMING UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 1.40 pct closed at 888 points week ended 19 April 2013. The Cape index was down by 2.45 pct closing at 1234 p ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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