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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 23 April 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER SHIPPED 4 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 1Q
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, the Indonesian state owned coal miner shipped more coal in first quarter of this year compared to the same period in ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
REALM CONTINUES AS 51% OWNER AND MANAGER OF THE KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced today that, the commercial way forward for the development of its 51% held Indonesian t ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
TIGERS REALM COAL HAS SOME OF THE WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED COKING COAL ASSETS - EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
COALspot.com - “ During 2012, your Company has made very significant progress towards meeting its stated objective of becoming a global player ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 4.38 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,434,336 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 22 April 2013, Newca ...
Sunday, 21 April 13
INDONESIA - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE FIRMING UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 1.40 pct closed at 888 points week ended 19 April 2013. The Cape index was down by 2.45 pct closing at 1234 p ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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