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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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