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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 13 April 13
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market firmed up this week and all sectors were up except for Supramax index.
The BDI was up by 1.62 pct closing at 8 ...
Friday, 12 April 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DEVELOPED NEWFOUND APPETITE FOR BULKERS DURING FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's official; more and more ship owners operating in the dry bulk market appear to have developed a newfound optimism in the market's prospects. ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
HANDY: INDO - INDIA NOW BEEN REPORTED AT APS BASIS AT USD 10K+BB 85K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain with not many cargoes seen this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacifi ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 15.96 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,545,914 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 8 April 2013, Newcas ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
TNEB HAS OPENED 4.2 MILLION TONS IMPORTED COAL TENDER
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, the state run utility TANGEDCO (formerly known as TNEB), Tamil Nadu state owned electricity company has opened bids to purc ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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