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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
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