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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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