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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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