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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 03 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DIP 24.79 PER CENT WOW
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports fell 24.79% to 2.33 million tons WoW.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,332,513 tons of coal for the ...
Monday, 01 July 13
12TH CLEAN COAL FORUM INDONESIA 2013
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 12th Clean Coal Forum Indonesia 2013 will be held on Dec 5-6,2013 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It will generat ...
Monday, 01 July 13
INDIA AND CHINA STILL DOMINATING THE INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORT MARKET
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi types coal exporter shipped 35.83* million tons of coal in May 2013, 1.40 per cent l ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
YEAR 2014 INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2013 LEVEL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery have gained 0.08 percent on a day lost on week ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
CAPESIZE RATES SEEN INCREASING ON HIGH DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to rise and saw a big gain on Friday. BDI increased 14 per cent week ended 28 June 2013, closed at 1171 points driv ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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