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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
Friday, 05 July 13
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS GOING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH - INTERMODAL
The Capesize sector has been one that has gone through a wild rollercoaster of emotions this past decade, ranging from the exuberance witnessed duri ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
CHALLENGER SIGNS FORMAL EXCLUSIVE MINING AND MARKETING AGREEMENT FOR ABBR PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its subsidiary PT Bestindo Energy has signed the formal exclusive Mining and Marketing agree ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
ASX LISTED QBL TO ACQUIRE INTERESTS IN MOZAMBIQUE COAL EXPLORATION LICENSES
- QBL to acquire interests in two Mozambique exploration licences prospective for coal
- Licenses located in the highly prospective Zambezi basin, ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA, CHARTERERS RATING AROUND US$ 10,000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market firmed slightly up as mid-July cargos entered the market, but charterers seems not in hurry to cover them and looking for ch ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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