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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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