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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
COAL GASIFICATION
IBC’s Coal Gasification conference explores the opportunities for coal gasification investment and development in Asia.
With depleting dome ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
SUPRAMAX : THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS MOVING ON A POSITIVE PATH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Cape - Despite holding their ground fairly well early on in the week, Capes in the Atlantic basin gave in to the mounting pressure fro ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI
Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
WIJAYA TRI UTAMA PURCHASES MICROCOAL TECHNOLOGIES' CLEAN COAL UPGRADING FACILITY
- First MCI commercial scale application of proprietary microwave technology to upgrade coal thermal output and reduce pollutants
- MicroCoal to re ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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