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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects ha ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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