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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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