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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids for 520,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal with calorific value 5,700 kcal/kg on NAR basis f ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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