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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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