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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 10 August 13
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR US COAL INDUSTRY CHANGES TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "U ...
Saturday, 10 August 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY TO BE CRUCIAL AGAIN IN PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We appear to have forgotten demolition activity this year, with the Baltic Dry Index gaining traction in the latter part of the second half and emer ...
Friday, 09 August 13
US PRODUCED 4.00 PERCENT LESS COAL ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.00 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
HANDY : NO POSITIVE SENTIMENT FOR THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
No positive sentiment for the Far East market. There are a number of ships coming open in SE Asia this week and owners rating mid/high USD 8k ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
MALAYSIA HOSTS THIRD ANNUAL ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release : The third Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group (ASBCUG) conference convenes Sept. 30-Oct. 3 at the Eastern & Orie ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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